Record high aluminum prices could spur inventory reduction

Record aluminum prices in the US and Europe will be supported by a Russian tax on metallurgical products for several months, but attempts to raise prices even higher are likely to face a headwind from traders cashing out their stocks, analysts said.

Russia introduced a tax of 15% or a minimum of USD 254 / t on aluminum exports between August and December. Rusal, the only aluminum producer in Russia, accounted for 6% of global supplies last year, estimated at 65 million tonnes.

Record high metal prices around the world

Consumers buying aluminum from the physical spot market pay the base price of aluminum on the London Metal Exchange (LME) plus a surcharge that covers shipping and handling costs and taxes. The price of aluminum, widely used in the transport and packaging industries, has already surged due to skyrocketing demand, reduced supplies and rising transport costs, recently hitting $ 2,642 / t, the highest level since April 2018 after the United States imposed sanctions against Rusala.

Premiums in Europe and the USA are at a record high - around 360 and 760 USD / t, respectively.